https://ssp3nc3r.github.io/categories/simulation/ Recent content in Simulation on Dr. Scott Spencer Hugo en Thu, 11 Jun 2026 15:01:49 -0400 https://ssp3nc3r.github.io/post/four-million-world-cups/ Thu, 11 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0000 https://ssp3nc3r.github.io/post/four-million-world-cups/ <p><em>The 2026 World Cup kicks off today. I simulated the whole tournament four million times &mdash; and unlike most forecasts you&rsquo;ll read this week, mine tells you how sure it is.</em></p> <h2 id="the-number-everyone-publishes-and-the-number-almost-nobody-does">The number everyone publishes, and the number almost nobody does</h2> <p>Every World Cup forecast gives you a number: <em>Spain 18%</em>. Useful, but it hides a question that matters just as much: <strong>how well do we actually know that number?</strong> A model that has watched a player&rsquo;s whole career should be more confident than one squinting at six months of form. A squad full of household names playing in well-measured leagues should carry tighter uncertainty than one whose players we&rsquo;ve barely observed.</p>